Saturday, February 21, 2015

Final Oscar Predictions 

 Without further ado, my final predictions in the Top 6 categories! It's a tough year so it should be interesting to see how it all shakes down. Feel free to leave comments below!

 BEST PICTURE: "Birdman"
 Congratulations to Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Selma, The Imitation Game, American Sniper and The Theory of Everything: Your nomination is your award in this category. Back in January, I would have put money on Boyhood to win Best Picture. Since then, Birdman has caught up in the rankings by walking away with the main award at the SAG’s, the Producers Guild, and the Directors Guild. The majority of past winners from the DGA’s have gone on to win the Best Picture at the Oscars. While I am still not sold on this whole Birdman thing, I do have to admit it had the most bizarre ideas in ages. As a whole however, I thought Boyhood was a one of a kind story that the Oscars should honor. If I were voting I would pick Boyhood. (How happy I will be if it can pull the win off!) However, for sake of predicting the winner, I’m going to have to pick Birdman.

BEST DIRECTOR: Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
Achievement in Directing can sometimes match up with Best Picture, sometimes not. Whichever way this ends up, there are a few contenders for which the nomination is the award. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) seem to have accidentally waltzed into this category, especially the latter considering that Foxcatcher is completely absent from the Best Picture race. Wes Anderson, earning his first directing nomination, has a stronger shot of winning in the Screenplay category for The Grand Budapest Hotel. That leaves Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman) and Richard Linklater (Boyhood). Only one can win the Oscar (barring a tie) so let’s see how this looks at face value: Linklater won the Golden Globe and BAFTA; Iñárritu won the prestigious DGA, while Birdman won the PGA, SAG and NBR. At this point, flip a coin and you have just as great a chance at getting this right. Might it split? Maybe, but I’m too scared to predict it with the sudden onslaught of Birdman love from the guilds. Worse case scenario: I’m right and my prediction score is a little higher. Best case scenario: I’m wrong and Linklater wins his first Oscar for the highly complicated filming logistics of Boyhood. DGA has a tremendous track record at predicting Oscar winners, so Iñárritu it is.

BEST ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"
Welcome to the tightest acting race of the night. While last year was an easy win for Matthew McConaghuey in Dallas Buyers Club, this year is a different story and the moments leading up to the announcement will be a nail biter. On paper it makes sense that Steve Carell should be a strong contender for his role in Foxcatcher. Fake nose? Check. Ambiguous character with underlying nefarious motives? Check. His downfall in this race is the lack of precursors and lack of overall buzz. Benedict Cumberbatch, in any other year, would also seem a sure bet for an Oscar win considering his character is real-life Nazi code breaker Alan Turing in The Imitation Game. However, this category has three strong contenders who are hoarding all the glory in this race. Bradley Cooper was a surprise nominee for American Sniper, and while that film is the highest grossing of all 8 Best Picture nominations, it would be gutsy to predict a Cooper win here. That leaves us with Birdman’s Michael Keaton and The Theory of Everything’s Eddie Redmayne. A win for Keaton could signify merit to a lengthy career in Hollywood, but with only a Golden Globe win on his side, I’m not sure it makes his win possible. There’s a better chance of Redmayne taking the award here considering he won the SAG, Globe, and BAFTA. If Keaton could win this Oscar, then it might mean a Birdman win for Best Picture, since the buzz around the film has been strong in recent weeks. For now, I stand by my prediction but be prepared for anything to happen here on Oscar night.

 BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
In the category for Best Actress in a leading role, one performance stands out above the rest. It goes without saying that Julianne Moore will win her first Academy Award for her stellar performance in Still Alice. After five nominations with no wins, many within the Academy feel that she is overdue. In fact, there are some who swear Moore has already won an Oscar due to her many nominations. Reese Witherspoon, a previous Oscar winner in this category, was superb in the film Wild, but another win so soon seems unlikely. The same goes for Marion Cotillard for her performance in Two Days, One Night. Cotillard won an Oscar for her role in La Vie en Rose, which was a better performance than this, leaving the nomination as her award this year. Rosamond Pike scored her first nomination for her role in Gone Girl and with the film almost absent and in all other categories, it's highly improbable she will win here. Add in Felicity Jones for her role in the Theory of Everything and it seems pretty clear that this Oscar is Julianne Moore’s to lose.

 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
When it comes to the Academy Awards there is no such thing as a sure thing. That being said, this category is about as close to a runaway as there can be. Robert Duvall, the only previous Oscar winner in this category, has the least likely chance of picking up another statue for his role in The Judge. Mark Ruffalo, a serious actor in a serious role in Foxcatcher, also should be happy with his second career nomination. If anyone here can upset the applecart, look to Edward Norton in the highly popular Birdman or Ethan Hawke in the equally popular Boyhood. However, when all the dust settles, it's clear that J.K. Simmons, who was astonishing as the maniacal instructor in the tense Whiplash, should walk off the Academy Awards stage with an Oscar firmly in his grasp.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
The supporting categories at this year’s Oscar race are both pretty much sure things. Only Meryl Streep is a previous Oscar winner in this category, but she won't repeat again this year for her role as a wicked witch in Into The Woods. Laura Dern, a previous Oscar nominee, barely snuck into this category for her role in Wild, so her chances are thin at best. Keira Knightley brought gravitas to her role in The Imitation Game, but she has no precursor love to warrant a win here. Only Emma Stone, for her work in Birdman, may come close to stealing the Oscar away from Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. But after winning almost every award up until this point even that is a long shot. Rest assured that Arquette will win her first Oscar on Sunday night.

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